Physical Threat Vectors in Critical Railway Infrastructure: From Theft to Sabotage
Infrastructure Resilience and Physical Attack Report Across Theft, Sabotage, and Terrorism
Global railway networks are caught between economically motivated theft driven by rising commodity prices and strategic sabotage fueled by geopolitical tensions. This study presents the statistical distribution of railway security threats based on Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) data, UIC (International Union of Railways) reports, and LME copper price correlations, along with material-based attack profiles and a methodology for reading perpetrator motivation from field evidence.
Key Finding: The technological transformation of railway networks (transition from copper to fiber) is also changing the threat profile. While copper theft is a crude crime based on stealing physical assets, fiber optic sabotage is a surgical attack type targeting the system’s “nervous system.”
Railway security is no longer merely a public order issue—it is a matter of national security. The situation faced by South Africa’s Transnet operator has escalated to “economic sabotage” as organized crime syndicates systematically strip and sell railway network components. Meanwhile, Europe is confronting sophisticated sabotage operations assessed to be state-sponsored under the shadow of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Core Thesis: The technological transformation of railway networks (copper to fiber transition) is changing the threat profile. While copper theft is a crude crime based on stealing physical assets, fiber optic sabotage is a surgical attack type that targets the system’s “nervous system,” creating operational blindness by severing information flow.